Forecasts of 2024 Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday Sales Data & Trends

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday are key sales periods in the United States, typically marking the start of the holiday shopping season. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, these sales periods have seen significant shifts in consumer behavior, with an increasing focus on online shopping, early discounts, and supply chain challenges. Here's a look at the data from 2020 to 2023, followed by forecasts for 2024

2020: Thanksgiving($5.1 billion), Black Friday($9.0 billion), Cyber Monday($10.8 billion)

Trends: Massive shift to e-commerce due to pandemic Lockdowns. Online sales surged while in-store foot traffic dropped by 52%.

2021: Thanksgiving($5.1 billion), Black Friday($8.9 billion), Cyber Monday($10.7 billion)

Trends: Return to in-store shopping but e-commerce remained strong. Supply chain issues led to early promotions.

2022: Thanksgiving($5.3 billion), Black Friday($9.12 billion), Cyber Monday($11.3 billion)

Trends: Hybrid shopping experience, continued e-commerce growth, inflationary pressures resulted in higher prices but similar unit sales.

2023: Thanksgiving($5.6 billion), Black Friday($9.8 billion), Cyber Monday($12.0 billion)

Trends: Record e-commerce sales, increasing Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage, consumer cautiousness due to economic uncertainty.

Trends and Insights (2020-2023)

· Shift to E-commerce: Since 2020, The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift to online shopping, a trend that continued into 2023. In 2023, it was reported that 79% of Cyber Week ecommerce traffic originated from mobile devices. Even with a return to in-store shopping, e-commerce continues to grow, driven by convenience and a wider range of deals.

· Early Promotions: Retailers have started offering Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals as early as October to capture early holiday spending. This trend started due to supply chain issues in 2021 and continued in subsequent years. Consumers are also increasingly looking for early deals, and many prefer shopping online to avoid crowds.

· Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): BNPL services like Afterpay and Klarna gained popularity during the 2021-2023 period as consumers sought flexible payment options in response to inflation.

· Economic Challenges: The economic climate, including inflation, affected consumer spending in 2022 and 2023. Despite higher sales numbers, inflation led to lower quantities of goods purchased at higher prices.

2024 Forecast

Based on the data and trends from the past four years, the 2024 holiday sales season is expected to continue evolving in response to economic conditions, consumer behavior, and technological advancements.

 

Sales Forecast:

l Thanksgiving Day is expected to see sales of approximately $6.1 billion.

l Black Friday sales are projected to reach about $10.8 billion.

l Cyber Monday is anticipated to hit $13.2 billion in sales.

l Overall, the total sales across the Thanksgiving weekend are forecasted to be around $75 billion.

 

Trends:

l Mobile Shopping: A significant increase in mobile shopping is expected, likely exceeding 50% of online sales.

l Consumer Behavior: The trend of early shopping is expected to continue, with retailers extending sales periods to capture consumer interest.

l Discount Expectations: Average discounts are projected to remain high, around 30% for popular categories like electronics.

The Role of the Rebate Industry in Supporting Online Sales (2020-2023)

The rebate and coupon industry has played a crucial role in driving consumer behavior, particularly during the pandemic and post-pandemic years. As more consumers moved online, rebate sites and cashback programs became significant tools to encourage spending and foster customer loyalty.

2020(~16%)

Key Trends: Rebates and coupons surged as retailers sought to incentivize spending during economic uncertainty. Cashback offers became more prominent as a way to lure cost-conscious shoppers.

2021(~18%)

Key Trends: The popularity of rebate platforms grew, especially with BNPL integration. Consumers increasingly searched for discounts and deals due to inflation and supply chain issues.

2022(~20%)

Key Trends: As inflation pressures intensified, rebate sites such as Rakuten and Honey saw more traffic. Retailers partnered more with these platforms to drive traffic and conversions.

2023(~22%)

Key Trends: Rebate and coupon use increased further as consumers became more budget-conscious. More businesses integrated rebate services into their marketing strategies, making cashback offers a core part of their holiday sales.

Forecast for 2024: The Rebate and Coupon Industry

The rebate industry is poised for continued growth in 2024 as shoppers increasingly rely on cashback programs and coupon codes to offset rising prices. The following trends are expected to shape the landscape of rebates and coupons during the 2024 holiday season:

· Higher Rebate Usage: It’s estimated that rebates will account for around 24% of total online sales during the holiday season. Consumers are expected to use cashback services even more frequently, especially as economic uncertainty looms.

· Increased Personalization: Platforms will leverage data analytics to offer personalized rebate and coupon deals based on user behavior, enhancing user loyalty and conversion rates.

· Mobile-First Strategies: As mobile shopping continues to grow, rebate apps and browser extensions will focus on enhancing the mobile user experience, offering real-time alerts and deals while users shop on their phones.

· Integration with BNPL: Buy Now, Pay Later services are likely to integrate more with rebate platforms, offering a combined value proposition to attract price-sensitive shoppers.

Key Prediction for 2024: The rebate and coupon industry will continue to expand as consumers look for savings amidst economic challenges. Innovations such as personalized rebates, mobile-first experiences, and the integration of BNPL services will define the industry’s growth in the coming year.

Key Players in the Rebate and Coupon Industry (Rising 2022-2023)

In the past two years, several rebate and coupon platforms have experienced rapid growth, becoming important players in the online retail ecosystem. These platforms help consumers save money while shopping online, and retailers rely on them to drive traffic and increase sales conversions.

Rakuten: Formerl y known as Ebates, Rakuten offers cashback on a wide range of purchases.

TopCashback: This site h as consistently ranked as one of the best cashback platforms

FatCoupon: Fatcoupon i s a rebate cashback website that has risen rapidly after entering the rebate industry in recent years!

Data Source:

Adobe Analytics Holiday Report:
https://adobe.com/experience-cloud/insights/holiday-shopping-trends

National Retail Federation (NRF) Holiday Data:
https://nrf.com

Statista Holiday Sales Data:
https://statista.com/statistics/1121709/us-holiday-season-sales-breakdown 

Deloitte Holiday Retail Insights:
https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/holiday-retail-survey.html 

Rakuten Rebate Insights:
https://www.rakuten.com/blog 

Honey Trends:
https://joinhoney.com/trends 

Afterpay’s Holiday Insights:
https://www.afterpay.com/en-US/insights